In a bold claim, President Trump has asserted that his rumored pick for the next Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, could spur the U.S. economy to a staggering 15% growth rate. But economists are skeptical that such a lofty target is achievable, even with a more dovish Fed leadership.
Speaking to reporters, Trump said that Warsh, a former Fed governor, "believes in lower interest rates by a lot" and would be able to drive the economy to "hit 15%" growth if appointed to the central bank's top job. The president has made no secret of his desire for the Fed to aggressively cut rates in order to juice the economy ahead of the 2028 election.
A Questionable Claim
However, most economists believe Trump's 15% growth target is simply unrealistic. Even the most optimistic forecasts put U.S. GDP expansion in the 3-4% range over the next few years, assuming the economy avoids a recession.
"Hitting 15% growth would be an extraordinary feat, something we've never seen outside of a post-war economic boom," said Jason Ma, an economist at Capital Economics. "The president is setting the bar unrealistically high, even for someone as dovish as Warsh."
A Clash of Visions
The bigger issue, experts say, is that Warsh's views on monetary policy could put him at odds with Trump's demands for aggressive rate cuts. While Warsh has advocated for lower rates, he has also stressed the importance of Fed independence and price stability - two priorities that may conflict with the president's desire to juice the economy ahead of the 2028 election.
"There's going to be a clash of visions between Trump and whoever he picks to lead the Fed," said Jon Hilsenrath of Fortune. "The new chair will have to balance the president's political demands with the Fed's mandate to maintain stable prices and maximum employment."
Ultimately, the fate of the U.S. economy may come down to whether Trump is willing to accept a more cautious, independent Fed leadership - or if he'll keep pushing for the type of drastic rate cuts that could risk runaway inflation.