The notion of a vast, moderate middle in American politics is largely a myth, according to a growing body of research. A new study published in the American Political Science Review finds that many so-called "moderates" are actually non-ideologues - voters whose political views aren't well-captured by a simple left-right spectrum.
The Moderate Myth
The idea of a large, persuadable bloc of centrist voters has long been a fixture of American political discourse. Pundits and strategists often suggest that Democrats or Republicans can win elections by "moving to the middle." But as FiveThirtyEight's Lee Drutman has argued, this "moderate middle" is largely a mirage.
The new study, co-authored by a team of political scientists, dives deeper into this phenomenon. Using data from the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, the researchers classified voters into three groups: those with genuinely moderate views, those who are simply inattentive to politics, and those whose opinions don't fit neatly on a liberal-conservative spectrum.
A Nuanced Picture
What this really means is that the common portrayal of moderates as a decisive, middle-of-the-road voting bloc is oversimplified. As NPR reports, the study found that moderates and those with multidimensional political views are "especially consequential for electoral selection and accountability."
The bigger picture here is that the American electorate is more ideologically diverse than often assumed. While a single liberal-conservative dimension may capture the views of most voters, there's a significant segment whose opinions don't fit neatly into that framework. Recognizing and understanding this nuance is crucial for politicians, pundits, and voters alike.
As the researchers conclude, this study "suggests a need for renewed attention to the middle of the American political spectrum." Simply assuming that moderates are a monolithic, centrist group is a mistake. The reality is more complex - and potentially more important for the future of US politics.